This study examines the natural gas trade network in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from 1992 to 2016 by analyzing the PNG trade network and LNG trade network using complex network theory. It forecasts the future performance of the BRI area's natural gas trade network up to 2030, considering factors such as production and consumption capacity, trade price, transport risk, and national political risk. The study emphasizes the need to understand the differences between PNG and LNG trade for policymakers in BRI countries. It shows that the natural gas market density along the BRI has increased, with a rise in LNG export market monopolies. By 2030, the natural gas trade network in the BRI is expected to become more compact, with LNG exports dominating. There will be greater diversity in the BRI's natural gas trade network, with PNG traded intensively among neighboring countries and LNG traded among distant countries. China is projected to increase PNG imports from Turkmenistan, Myanmar, and Kazakhstan, while India will import LNG mainly from Oman, Qatar, and the UAE. The Philippines plans to join LNG imports to meet growing demand as its domestic gas field depletes by building a new LNG receiving station.

The findings suggest several policy implications for countries and regions along BRI regarding natural gas trade:

1. Cooperation among BRI countries is vital for enhancing natural gas trade growth and infrastructure development. This involves fostering trust, ensuring regional security, and investing in infrastructure in resource-rich countries along the BRI.

2. Diversifying trade partnerships is crucial for national energy security and preventing monopolies in the LNG market. Countries should optimize import sources and promote multilateral cooperation to enhance PNG pipeline networks.

3. Tailored strategies for natural gas trade are needed based on regional characteristics along the BRI. High-speed development areas should focus on infrastructure, while major importers can support projects in these regions through various means.

However, the study has limitations, including focusing on countries not along the BRI, potential biases in control variables, and the need for further research on factors influencing the evolution of the natural gas trade network along the BRI.

Reference:

Li J. et al. Natural gas trade network of countries and regions along the belt and road: Where to go in the future? //Resources Policy. – 2021. – Т. 71. – С. 101981.