Made by Khazova Natalia

The global trend of energy transition has seen a shift towards the use of natural gas, particularly in China, leading to an increased reliance on LNG shipping imports through the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. However, disruptions in this strategic maritime link could severely impact China's energy supplies. This study aims to develop a simulation model to analyze China's natural gas supply and demand structures, import patterns, and the impact of shocks on LNG shipping and reliance on SOMS. It also seeks to draw policy implications for China and BRI countries. This study fills a research gap by quantifying the impacts of energy transition on LNG shipping import volumes and energy security. It pioneers the development of an innovative System Dynamics model to simulate natural gas supply and demand patterns, analyze shocks in the system, and assess the reliance on SOMS. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and commercial stakeholders to facilitate energy transition in China and enhance trade and economic growth in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. The study recommends that China incentivize renewable energy and shale gas development, improve natural gas pipeline utilization, and encourage overseas LNG infrastructure investments. Additionally, it suggests that BRI member countries diversify export routes and expand their presence in global natural gas markets. The research highlights the need for further studies on the impact of energy transition on energy shipping and emphasizes the importance of strategic planning to mitigate risks and enhance energy security.

Reference:

Yin Y., Lam J. S. L. Impacts of energy transition on Liquefied Natural Gas shipping: A case study of China and its strategies //Transport Policy. – 2022. – Т. 115. – С. 262-274.