Россия и ВТО: присоединение и его последствия / Текущая аналитика / Report review for the article "The Game of Economic Globalization, Anti-Globalization and Counter-Globalization: Process, Status Quo and Trend", 2019

Report review for the article "The Game of Economic Globalization, Anti-Globalization and Counter-Globalization: Process, Status Quo and Trend", 2019

Title: ????????????????????????????? (The Game of Economic Globalization, Anti-Globalization and Counter-Globalization: Process, Status Quo and Trend, 2019)

Author: ??? (Jiang Shaomin, school of Economics, Renmin University of China)

Brief Description

This article is divided into four parts. At first, the author recounts the imbalance in global wealth distribution. From 1995 to 2014, the annual growth rate of global wealth per capita is 1.3%. Among them, the annual growth rate of per capita wealth in low-income countries is 0.87%, the annual growth rate of wealth per capita in upper middle-income countries is 6% and the annual growth rate of wealth per capita in high-income countries is 1.47%. The share of high-income countries in global wealth is declining, and the incidence of extreme poverty is declining rapidly, but at the same time, in sub-Saharan Africa, the population of extreme poverty is increasing.

Secondly, the difference in the division of labor between developed and developing countries has caused the problem of uneven distribution of benefits. With the intensification of industrialization in some Latin American countries, multinational corporations have controlled their economic lifeline to a certain extent, and even have considerable political control. For some Latin American countries that started industrialization earlier, they neglected agricultural development and borrowed heavily in the process of industrialization. These actions have caused environmental pollution and traffic jams in cities, uneven income distribution and debt crises. Under such a circumstance, voices against globalization have appeared in some Latin American countries, and there have been some well-known development economists such as: Prebisch, Santos.

Thirdly, 1950-1970 was called the golden growth period of capitalist economy. But after 1970, the capitalist countries entered a new round of recession, and overproduction and "stagflation" became new challenges. With the emergence of liberalism, monetarism and rational expectations schools put forward policy proposals to reduce state intervention, or even not to intervene in the economy. For a time, "liberalization", "privatization" and "marketization" took the lead. However, with the rapid economic growth of developing countries and regions, especially East Asia and Southeast Asia, the trade friction between the United States and Japan and the further deepening of European integration. The ability to compete with the United States continued to increase. Many similar factors prompted the United States to sign agreements with Canada and Mexico to establish North American free trade in 1992. However, since the 2008 financial crisis, the world economy has been in a sluggish economy, with slow recovery and lack of a strong growth engine. Although both the United States and the European Union have adopted quantitative easing policies, the situation in the United States is better than in Europe. However, some basic problems in the US economy have not been resolved yet, such as trade deficit, fiscal deficit, widening income distribution gap, and etc.

Fourthly, the author summarizes several reasons for the occurrence of de-globalization:

  1. After the 2008 global financial crisis, world economic growth in general, lack of motivation, the world economic outlook is not optimistic.
  2. Trade tensions continue to escalate, such as the China-US trade war.
  3. The international debt burden is increasing, and the risks and hidden dangers of economic growth are increasing.
  4. Local conflicts and disputes continue, the rise of extreme religious forces and the immigration and refugee issues caused by wars and conflicts have brought more uncertainty to the world.
  5. The income distribution gap within some developed countries has continued to widen, giving developed countries a certain popular foundation for anti-globalization.

Conclusion

After the industrial revolution in the 1950s, developed countries were both the promoters and main beneficiaries of economic globalization, and the makers of global rules. In contrast, developing countries have always been recipients of economic globalization and world rules, and they also face the so-called "middle income trap". In global trade, developing countries mainly export primary products produced by backward production methods, such as agricultural products and mineral products. Developed countries mainly export manufactured products produced by modern industries. Due to capital and technology, these products have high added value and prices are much higher than primary products. In summary, the result is an uneven distribution of global benefits. The imbalance in the distribution of globalization benefits not only occurs between developed and developing countries, but also between developed and developed countries, and between developing and developing countries. This unequal distribution of benefits is a direct cause of anti-globalization. Therefore, anti-globalization has almost always been accompanied by globalization, but in the game between them, the anti-globalization force has always been weaker. Most of them are emerging in developing countries after World War II, or there is no real action, or is their strength is too weak. The game between globalization and anti-globalization is regular. When the economy is in recession, the voice of anti-globalization will become louder, and protectionism and populism will prevail. When the economy is booming, the voice of globalization will become louder and liberalism will prevail. But the trend of globalization has not been reversed.

Россия и ВТО: присоединение и его последствия

Кафедра мировой экономики экономического факультета Санкт-Петербургского государственного университета, которая является единственным в России и на постсоветском пространстве институциональным партнером Всемирной торговой организации и реализует проект "Кафедра ВТО", при поддержке Министерства иностранных дел Великобритании представляет Вашему вниманию информационный портал "Россия и ВТО: оптимизация последствий присоединения". Он призван обеспечить надлежащую подготовку правительства, таможенной службы и бизнес-сообщества в Северо-Западном и других регионах России к операционным изменениям и изменениям в регулировании, которых требует присоединение России к ВТО.